Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 - Jorden Van Foreest vs Alexey Sarana (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc252e6d0f17b129466a046083a3c345aafe34556427594b0f4727f929c7e6781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saranaof Foreest, Sarana
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,053
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x880c…440abacked Sarana | 72c | 165$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Sarana | 48c | 89.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Sarana | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Foreest | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Foreest | 51c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…d7b2backed Foreest | 52c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Sarana | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Foreest | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Sarana | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cc…9f53backed Sarana | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Sarana | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…cc22backed Sarana | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e2…382dbacked Foreest | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Sarana | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.