Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marquette vs. St. John's
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2a3810d3ad36cd2885a2957b67278719e1dcdf83a325f482415dfeb06597523
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. John'sof Marquette, St. John's
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Marquette | 33c | 32,615$10,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,828.48 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a5…f9babacked St. John's | 60c | 28,726$17,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,414.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marquette | 37c | 5,850$2,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.78 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed St. John's | 64c | 3,200$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Marquette | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Marquette | 38c | 2,505$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948 | 250 | 43.2%108 W · 142 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed St. John's | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed St. John's | 52c | 1,340$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.07 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed St. John's | 63c | 1,222$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…f8dabacked Marquette | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marquette | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 391 | 44.5%174 W · 217 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed St. John's | 58c | 415$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.35 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd37b…3802backed Marquette | 39c | 400.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked St. John's | 42c | 372.76$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked St. John's | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…35cfbacked St. John's | 64c | 273$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Marquette | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. John's | 63c | 236.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 168 | 42.3%71 W · 97 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Marquette | 56c | 178.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed St. John's | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Marquette | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Marquette | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked St. John's | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…f17bbacked St. John's | 64c | 32.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…5ddcbacked Marquette | 39c | 28.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed St. John's | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 247 | 59.5%147 W · 100 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed St. John's | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.