MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b044c93ae3204f7dcd6b1982836b9a3792762571615af23d7814814331d48a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fba…d08abacked Royals | 53c | 17,065$9,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,044.2 | 531 | 50.5%268 W · 263 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Guardians | 69c | 11,893$8,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,679.31 | 564 | 51.1%288 W · 276 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Royals | 57c | 9,609$5,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,455.21 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Guardians | 43c | 8,763$3,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,995.11 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Royals | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 382 | 49.5%189 W · 193 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 44c | 5,226$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.72 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Royals | 21c | 3,546$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.42 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Royals | 54c | 1,154$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.86 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 10c | 1,035$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 44c | 1,000$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Guardians | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Royals | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…fbb5backed Royals | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 166 | 54.8%91 W · 75 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…76c1backed Royals | 55c | 453.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -16.8wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x102c…a24cbacked Guardians | 62c | 439.74$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.1 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…15cabacked Guardians | 44c | 428$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Guardians | 71c | 400$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…1174backed Guardians | 78c | 379$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 190 | 52.6%100 W · 90 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534e…ecfebacked Guardians | 79c | 378$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 274 | 58.8%161 W · 113 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…d8b7backed Guardians | 78c | 373$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 128 | 68%87 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…b890backed Guardians | 78c | 373$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.22 | 161 | 62.1%100 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…83ccbacked Guardians | 44c | 333$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.48 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Royals | 54c | 316.42$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.87 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Guardians | 77c | 258.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 327 | 54.7%179 W · 148 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Guardians | 46c | 250.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0229…ea6cbacked Royals | 8c | 211.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 417 | 47.2%197 W · 220 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Guardians | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 1,289 | 47.2%609 W · 680 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Royals | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians | 45c | 185.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Guardians | 74c | 182$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Royals | 55c | 180.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 1,293 | 46.6%603 W · 690 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Guardians | 45c | 159.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Royals | 56c | 133.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Guardians | 70c | 128.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2719…28ddbacked Guardians | 64c | 122$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 253 | 64.4%163 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dde…8a88backed Royals | 26c | 104.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Guardians | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Guardians | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Royals | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c4…25e7backed Guardians | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Guardians | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Guardians | 67c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 341 | 64.2%219 W · 122 L | +22.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Guardians | 72c | 88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 315 | 47.3%149 W · 166 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Guardians | 44c | 86.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Guardians | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Guardians | 45c | 51.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…01fabacked Guardians | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 513 | 47%241 W · 272 L | +32.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…ac8dbacked Guardians | 49c | 38.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 268 | 45.5%122 W · 146 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Guardians | 78c | 37.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Guardians | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Guardians | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 512 | 45.1%231 W · 281 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3015…85c3backed Guardians | 77c | 36.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Guardians | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Guardians | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…d2b7backed Guardians | 45c | 29.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed Guardians | 43c | 29.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Guardians | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 355 | 51.5%183 W · 172 L | +24.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…8a68backed Guardians | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…6b01backed Royals | 56c | 24.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…9b28backed Royals | 56c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…f553backed Royals | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.