Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2b81fb1c5cccfb5bf687ddb4de38c7cee851bc10bf91920551a15facefe339f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 50c | 9,082$4,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,549.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…48aebacked Yes | 46c | 4,820$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,238.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 53c | 4,451$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.86 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 1,028$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.05 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…606cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,001$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 51c | 973.08$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.08 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 51c | 841.82$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 50c | 166$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Yes | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee1d…cc3abacked Yes | 50c | 87.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…c3c9backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…180fbacked Yes | 64c | 20.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd0…6f8cbacked Yes | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-08-15?this page
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?No won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.