CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c76c811b5380e39667ef8d9aba9ab5e7e91a71a40a366de2662ad4d1b0895b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Lilmix, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…8044backed Ursa | 52c | 2,249$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.75 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lilmix | 36c | 1,479$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.44 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Lilmix | 56c | 777.93$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.44 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 38c | 544.69$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.06 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Lilmix | 28c | 520$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.85 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf981…44b7backed Ursa | 56c | 454$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.54 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Ursa | 68c | 208$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 62c | 180.79$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.95 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa | 74c | 178$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Lilmix | 24c | 161.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 73c | 121.43$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lilmix | 34c | 110.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Lilmix | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lilmix | 34c | 79.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lilmix | 33c | 59.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7344…98f6backed Ursa | 53c | 55.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Lilmix | 40c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d28…87b5backed Lilmix | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 75%63 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Ursa | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Ursa | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 297 | 52.2%155 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Lilmix | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 151 | 57%86 W · 65 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…e92bbacked Ursa | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 146 | 58.2%85 W · 61 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Ursa | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group ALilmix won
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerLilmix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.