CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cabdee5d2b1543ef22e32a3c26f1729f0b7260705c15aa581757ec72030da4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lilmixof Lilmix, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa16b…b541backed Ursa | 50c | 2,302$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.14 | 434 | 55.1%239 W · 195 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lilmix | 48c | 2,165$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.12 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 78c | 1,290$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.09 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Lilmix | 22c | 1,145$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.2 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 41c | 1,074$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.43 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lilmix | 34c | 564.64$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.15 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…ed18backed Lilmix | 26c | 550$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc105…c1b0backed Ursa | 7c | 499.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Ursa | 78c | 441.03$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 1,163 | 54.3%631 W · 532 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa094…3f07backed Ursa | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 249 | 42.2%105 W · 144 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953e…79ffbacked Lilmix | 8c | 357.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.83 | 303 | 48.5%147 W · 156 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed Lilmix | 63c | 353.73$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Ursa | 32c | 285.51$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed Ursa | 52c | 277.14$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…a9e1backed Ursa | 69c | 275.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.56 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Lilmix | 21c | 268.92$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.89 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Ursa | 65c | 199.94$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.76 | 858 | 51.6%443 W · 415 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Lilmix | 53c | 199.22$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.03 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Ursa | 78c | 195.77$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc99…ce7ebacked Lilmix | 36c | 190.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ursa | 35c | 166.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 54c | 130.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Lilmix | 31c | 119.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Lilmix | 23c | 112.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Lilmix | 33c | 106.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 196 | 58.2%114 W · 82 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Ursa | 37c | 98.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 489 | 43.6%213 W · 276 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Ursa | 50c | 97.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…3231backed Ursa | 70c | 97.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ursa | 79c | 86.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7f…d8dbbacked Lilmix | 34c | 85.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed Lilmix | 70c | 85.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5635…3534backed Lilmix | 77c | 84.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Lilmix | 51c | 83.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Lilmix | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 300 | 31.7%95 W · 205 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Lilmix | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Ursa | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Ursa | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 300 | 62.3%187 W · 113 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133c…b5abbacked Ursa | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…3e93backed Lilmix | 75c | 67.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Ursa | 29c | 66.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 406 | 52.2%212 W · 194 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked Lilmix | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0776…b9d4backed Lilmix | 32c | 62.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Lilmix | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Lilmix | 68c | 58.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…269ebacked Lilmix | 74c | 55.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 28 | 82.1%23 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5c…cfa8backed Lilmix | 69c | 50.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Ursa | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 202 | 58.9%119 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…4248backed Ursa | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…ffe5backed Ursa | 24c | 48.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Ursa | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 68c | 39.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Ursa | 50c | 37.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…7e01backed Lilmix | 79c | 37.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4301…fd19backed Lilmix | 57c | 36.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Lilmix | 59c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…3c85backed Lilmix | 74c | 34.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Lilmix | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Lilmix | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…3384backed Lilmix | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…1678backed Ursa | 70c | 21.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…eeb3backed Ursa | 80c | 13.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 83 | 65.1%54 W · 29 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In Group Athis page
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Ursa - Map 2 WinnerLilmix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.