NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d3e79f98f26a5d81a3fd5bceebc9cfc386e69b0a583d3d29ba1bc3777c13f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 45c | 33,344$14,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,485.86 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Over | 55c | 20,983$11,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,550.48 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 56c | 12,115$6,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,763.42 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…9d96backed Over | 55c | 6,510$3,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,580.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…a739backed Under | 45c | 6,500$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,575 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847a…944fbacked Over | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…df86backed Under | 45c | 4,010$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,205.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee7…88dfbacked Over | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…1d73backed Under | 45c | 3,520$1,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c6…1c31backed Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…3911backed Over | 55c | 3,500$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 45c | 3,472$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.19 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f6…6199backed Under | 45c | 3,050$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,677.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0900…52bebacked Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 57c | 2,897$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.9 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 46c | 2,850$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,535.5 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f7…be88backed Under | 45c | 2,850$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…e6a4backed Over | 55c | 2,320$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe85…0628backed Under | 45c | 2,300$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 55c | 2,220$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…5c6bbacked Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +45%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…52d2backed Over | 55c | 1,400$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…4bacbacked Over | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 53c | 972$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.16 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Over | 55c | 838.27$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.05 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Over | 56c | 767.86$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 54c | 478$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.84 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 45c | 351.17$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.14 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 56c | 226.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6905…cbc7backed Over | 57c | 66.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea8…7c8dbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…0a96backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…ba7cbacked Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7d…5b5abacked Over | 56c | 18.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Bruins: O/U 5.5this page
- Senators vs. BruinsBruins won
- Senators vs. Bruins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Bruins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.