Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ea86d189444669753b18fa47b20cc03a22780893d6f3f4948cd108ac7e086a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 73c | 358.11$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed No | 36c | 346.83$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 9c | 333.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed No | 19c | 298.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 22c | 280.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 16c | 260.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 72c | 223.36$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 222.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 75c | 211.68$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 16c | 208.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 22c | 190.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 76c | 170.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 78c | 152.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 78c | 149.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 26c | 132.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked No | 23c | 130.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…286cbacked No | 30c | 129.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -75%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 20c | 126.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 14c | 119.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7980…0fabbacked No | 25c | 117.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 77c | 115.56$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked No | 10c | 106.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 14c | 99.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 16c | 96.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 26c | 96.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 70c | 93.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 77c | 89.62$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 16c | 85.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…0736backed No | 14c | 80.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…a789backed No | 19c | 80.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 73c | 79.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 60c | 73.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 20c | 73.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 37c | 69.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 15c | 66.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 22c | 63.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed No | 24c | 60.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes | 70c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 69c | 53.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…17fbbacked Yes | 76c | 50.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 75c | 49.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…b601backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 31c | 40.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 77c | 37.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…c015backed Yes | 68c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 70c | 35.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…2db8backed No | 36c | 35.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 67c | 29.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…8c1ebacked Yes | 78c | 29.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…4a36backed Yes | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 64c | 24.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed Yes | 78c | 24.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 76c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed Yes | 70c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 77c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 77c | 19.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked Yes | 77c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 66c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked Yes | 68c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…e756backed Yes | 70c | 15.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.