South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc31012859bad793302564792ab73f370546f841ae87b126d39f3aaafe81df97d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ba9…7450backed Yes | 0c | 29,990$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…3d38backed Yes | 0c | 24,322$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 2c | 19,227$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.13 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…0184backed Yes | 1c | 18,964$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Yes | 0c | 12,287$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…d7ecbacked Yes | 3c | 2,470$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 6c | 1,276$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 810.5$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.9 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…618cbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed No | 79c | 430.86$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 5c | 388$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 368.84$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3987backed No | 79c | 291.68$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…40afbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…37dcbacked Yes | 5c | 209.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 21c | 136.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8b03backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 69c | 90.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…2aa3backed Yes | 20c | 82.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 80c | 79.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 20c | 60.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…f781backed Yes | 21c | 51.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 79c | 17.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?Yes won
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.