South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80287545b5f56397dadea2672988f68e9be237a2a8b7c30fab32730363e10ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Yes | 18c | 2,797$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,306.93 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…3ee0backed Yes | 14c | 1,841$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 67c | 1,086$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.38 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 927.27$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.77 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 67c | 823.66$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.92 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…3327backed Yes | 33c | 313.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.03 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 13c | 299$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.13 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 13c | 223.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 29c | 212.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 68c | 149$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…769cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 69c | 60.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…33b8backed No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 65c | 56.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Yes | 32c | 53.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 53.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 68c | 36.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-17?No won
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.