South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f3fb9d3c84ddd1eb7b5b530259daa721a9a4b1b9bf91bcf7ac5331340c73e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ba9…7450backed Yes | 0c | 30,022$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Yes | 47c | 18,621$8,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,751.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd366…0184backed Yes | 0c | 18,267$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked No | 13c | 5,094$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,427.16 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 53c | 3,200$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…3272backed No | 53c | 2,903$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked No | 53c | 2,400$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 10c | 2,151$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.66 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 53c | 1,400$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked No | 26c | 1,320$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.9 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 53c | 1,200$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…d62abacked Yes | 50c | 998.24$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 32c | 925.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.48 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed No | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed No | 53c | 800$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 230 | 56.5%130 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 77c | 792.49$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.34 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 23c | 723$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.71 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 714.89$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.19 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 249 | 56.6%141 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed No | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 21c | 545.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 71c | 524.61$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed No | 53c | 520$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No | 53c | 520$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 12c | 486.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.77 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed No | 53c | 320$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 213 | 58.7%125 W · 88 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 53c | 312$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked No | 53c | 312$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.64 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked No | 53c | 290$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 53c | 280$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.6 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 266$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.81 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 15c | 260.16$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.13 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 56c | 257.96$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 74c | 220$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.81 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 77c | 184.77$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.26 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 53c | 177.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 15c | 96.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 78c | 95.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Yes | 19c | 95.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…92e3backed No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed No | 17c | 86.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 29c | 76.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 52c | 69.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 15c | 69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 56c | 65.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed No | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 179 | 60.3%108 W · 71 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Yes | 25c | 52.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 52c | 43.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed No | 51c | 40.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Yes | 49c | 30.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a3f4backed Yes | 79c | 25.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…b8cabacked Yes | 48c | 21.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.