Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3210d9c9d571653f484ffea92327a43a7a7f7810db117771e91c715a96e64d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 2,730$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.08 | 6,028 | 46.1%2,778 W · 3,250 L | +50.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 2,434$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.5 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 49c | 1,324$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.47 | 261 | 52.5%137 W · 124 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 50c | 1,233$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.91 | 2,585 | 40%1,035 W · 1,550 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 54c | 615.14$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.61 | 1,796 | 50.2%902 W · 894 L | +30.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085e…9aeabacked Over | 52c | 550.22$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 467.15$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.53 | 1,529 | 54.9%840 W · 689 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a66…ae5ebacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Under | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 46c | 299.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 25c | 209.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 48c | 198.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 23c | 195.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 55c | 180.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 44c | 134.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 55c | 119.68$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 118.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 2,566 | 42.1%1,081 W · 1,485 L | +52.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 49c | 99.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 341 | 50.7%173 W · 168 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 90.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1,266 | 50.2%635 W · 631 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc041…a87bbacked Under | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…44b8backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 46c | 71.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 284 | 53.2%151 W · 133 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 48c | 68.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 46c | 65.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 48c | 65.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 1,656 | 50.8%841 W · 815 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 61.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 67c | 58.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6911backed Over | 48c | 53.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 47c | 46.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 54c | 39.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ac…16cdbacked Under | 52c | 33.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 44c | 23.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 64c | 15.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.