Asian League · resolved market
FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa222ae03ae5427ae4af3d7ace4d99341683b51a54e51ec0858bee1c46cba3262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 49c | 4,118$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.12 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6114…69dbbacked Over | 31c | 3,150$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.49 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 3,144$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.15 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 2,000$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.04 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 69c | 1,288$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 52c | 674.96$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.18 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 467.7$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 264.51$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 238.02$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.86 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…1732backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 38c | 121.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Under | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Under | 50c | 83.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 30c | 76.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed Under | 72c | 69.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked Over | 47c | 63.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 28c | 39.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c0…6c00backed Under | 69c | 35.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…7483backed Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a77…8b53backed Under | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Tōkyō vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Tōkyō (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
- Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-2.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.