College Football · resolved market
Marshall vs. Middle Tennessee
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32432948a652d1293565a104e000279100e87a037fc4ff04dfbe218cd555c9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshallof Marshall, Middle Tennessee
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Middle Tennessee | 45c | 9,065$4,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,077.85 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Marshall | 55c | 4,500$2,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Marshall | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Middle Tennessee | 40c | 2,829$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.5 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Middle Tennessee | 37c | 2,079$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.03 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Middle Tennessee | 5c | 1,850$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…8f99backed Marshall | 59c | 1,731$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.63 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marshall | 58c | 1,689$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.25 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Middle Tennessee | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.98 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Middle Tennessee | 45c | 1,425$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.05 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Marshall | 60c | 1,250$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.49 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Middle Tennessee | 56c | 900$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Marshall | 75c | 878.44$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.99 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Middle Tennessee | 58c | 845.01$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…f7b2backed Marshall | 70c | 711.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…816ebacked Middle Tennessee | 77c | 607.44$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Marshall | 54c | 582.07$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.06 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Marshall | 55c | 550$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Marshall | 58c | 516.44$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Middle Tennessee | 4c | 423$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marshall | 55c | 397$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.65 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Marshall | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Marshall | 47c | 353$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.62 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Middle Tennessee | 9c | 347.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Marshall | 54c | 292.96$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Middle Tennessee | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed Middle Tennessee | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked Marshall | 56c | 242$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Middle Tennessee | 5c | 212.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Marshall | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Marshall | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Marshall | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac0…b10abacked Marshall | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ed94backed Marshall | 47c | 145$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Middle Tennessee | 50c | 143.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…1917backed Middle Tennessee | 40c | 129.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb156…bad8backed Marshall | 56c | 122.54$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Marshall | 59c | 115.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Marshall | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Middle Tennessee | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Marshall | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…1165backed Marshall | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…7cf5backed Marshall | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Marshall | 46c | 97.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Middle Tennessee | 48c | 91.13$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Marshall | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Marshall | 38c | 83.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…6fb2backed Middle Tennessee | 45c | 77.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0201…7fc6backed Marshall | 55c | 77.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…2170backed Marshall | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…9243backed Marshall | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Marshall | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…10a9backed Middle Tennessee | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Marshall | 49c | 50.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Marshall | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…b9acbacked Marshall | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed Marshall | 59c | 37.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…309ebacked Marshall | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Marshall | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…047fbacked Marshall | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Middle Tennessee | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…9d4bbacked Marshall | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…979abacked Middle Tennessee | 59c | 28.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Middle Tennessee | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marshall | 54c | 21.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked Marshall | 56c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.