Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc32c49eae0659f58a52d2675c084e31c7878d84ade1af581e53f13631d10f6f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,668 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Aurora | 77c | 3,730$2,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.15 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked paiN Gaming | 13c | 3,003$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.35 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming | 13c | 2,912$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.29 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 2,435$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.02 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Aurora | 78c | 2,288$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.36 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 13c | 2,267$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.67 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed paiN Gaming | 14c | 2,250$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming | 13c | 1,600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked paiN Gaming | 15c | 1,475$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked paiN Gaming | 14c | 1,364$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.73 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked paiN Gaming | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming | 23c | 1,132$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.24 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 1,022$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Aurora | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 999.98$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 729$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.18 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 77c | 630.27$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Aurora | 80c | 600$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 538.02$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed paiN Gaming | 19c | 502.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.64 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked paiN Gaming | 13c | 498$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed paiN Gaming | 14c | 466.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked paiN Gaming | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 437.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…020dbacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 429.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…de83backed paiN Gaming | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 365.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…8e37backed Aurora | 79c | 360.17$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 79c | 315.29$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 301.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed paiN Gaming | 14c | 282.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 78c | 237.18$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed paiN Gaming | 14c | 168$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed paiN Gaming | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Aurora | 78c | 158.2$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed paiN Gaming | 13c | 152.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -7.3wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN Gaming | 12c | 151.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 130.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Aurora | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed paiN Gaming | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming | 10c | 96.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 69.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 60.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Aurora | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +84%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Aurora | 79c | 36.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed Aurora | 79c | 31.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Aurora | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Aurora | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…0f23backed Aurora | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.