TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, paiN Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,733

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,733 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed paiN Gaming20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed paiN Gaming21c1,273$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.48328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming12c1,260$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.211,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e54…92e0backed Aurora78c1,216$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.524100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked paiN Gaming22c1,202$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.3935850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora80c1,035$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20756852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming14c951.54$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.391,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked paiN Gaming12c927.64$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.961,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50ec…4b0bbacked paiN Gaming22c925$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming19c837$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.760542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked paiN Gaming16c799.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12812642.1%53 W · 73 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe327…98b9backed paiN Gaming21c758$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68f…9480backed paiN Gaming21c660$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ee…9fe7backed paiN Gaming21c506$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked paiN Gaming21c480.85$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9834544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ac…ebbfbacked Aurora78c474$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6885…d36ebacked paiN Gaming21c472$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x350a…6b14backed Aurora78c451$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Aurora80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8017353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfde6…7981backed Aurora79c385$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91a9…2728backed Aurora79c373$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed paiN Gaming7c353.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7714744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01a…d11ebacked Aurora79c345$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0545…c719backed Aurora79c315$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1f6…7b81backed Aurora79c304$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1d…5b0fbacked Aurora79c281$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1769…94efbacked paiN Gaming22c252.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.854820.8%10 W · 38 L-7.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-55.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Aurora79c235.44$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.1722945.9%105 W · 124 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed2…eac8backed paiN Gaming22c230$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cb…1e00backed Aurora79c225$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74c5…6cb7backed Aurora80c210$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+25.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming16c190.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.621,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8568…38e7backed Aurora79c174.82$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.195100%5 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae60…1f06backed Aurora80c168.75$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.751973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37f9…ff9bbacked Aurora79c168$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed paiN Gaming11c163.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x37b6…2262backed Aurora80c146.25$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.253100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdae3…cf78backed paiN Gaming21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.23per pick35cpaid-74.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed paiN Gaming20c141$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.218739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…6ce1backed paiN Gaming18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1435461.3%217 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa7…db93backed Aurora80c125.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.613275%24 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x445c…c4f1backed Aurora80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df4…53f1backed paiN Gaming21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2194…4605backed Aurora78c120$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2a…378ebacked Aurora78c110$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed paiN Gaming22c105.65$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.918246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked paiN Gaming22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2231126%81 W · 230 L-17.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91ac…5ff3backed paiN Gaming20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021344.1%94 W · 119 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…59eabacked paiN Gaming10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102030%6 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86df…7d27backed Aurora80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206852.9%36 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb020…92f3backed Aurora79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218554.1%46 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e30…f399backed paiN Gaming21c93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc937…273bbacked paiN Gaming24c83.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed paiN Gaming20c83.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7210152.5%53 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa718…baf1backed paiN Gaming22c81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.822441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Aurora79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.72560%15 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c77…6747backed paiN Gaming23c67.41$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.844314%6 W · 37 L-9.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed Aurora78c65.54$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.427844.9%35 W · 43 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed paiN Gaming17c65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3522456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed paiN Gaming20c63.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.692722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-38.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a6c…0c81backed Aurora80c61.1$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.221070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe46a…ac91backed Aurora80c57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6a…0c59backed Aurora80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked paiN Gaming21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.595841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Aurora77c45.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.455841.4%24 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a2…3715backed paiN Gaming24c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37d6…d8d8backed Aurora74c40.27$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.273663.9%23 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c4…a92dbacked paiN Gaming29c36.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick40cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66c6…5ae8backed Aurora79c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf815…4f3ebacked Aurora80c30.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1327466.4%182 W · 92 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbab6…a19fbacked Aurora79c29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed Aurora80c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62781.5%22 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick75cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde6e…3085backed Aurora79c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…e0b5backed Aurora80c24$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Aurora75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2597142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b84…48e3backed Aurora80c16.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.243050%15 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e68…9a52backed Aurora80c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3999…c2bbbacked Aurora79c15.19$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.195453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe1f…791dbacked Aurora80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b4…4244backed Aurora80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5198…4964backed Aurora80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf657…f8d0backed Aurora80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.53342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb902…10c0backed Aurora80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.