Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47df64d259d8b830748f91d47a1b45156360900f32a967ec2da5bd6471727b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,733 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 1,273$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.4 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 12c | 1,260$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.21 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…92e0backed Aurora | 78c | 1,216$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 1,202$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.39 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 80c | 1,035$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 14c | 951.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked paiN Gaming | 12c | 927.64$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.96 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…4b0bbacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 925$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming | 19c | 837$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.7 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked paiN Gaming | 16c | 799.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…98b9backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 758$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…9480backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 660$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…9fe7backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 506$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 480.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…ebbfbacked Aurora | 78c | 474$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6885…d36ebacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 472$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350a…6b14backed Aurora | 78c | 451$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed Aurora | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7981backed Aurora | 79c | 385$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a9…2728backed Aurora | 79c | 373$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed paiN Gaming | 7c | 353.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01a…d11ebacked Aurora | 79c | 345$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…c719backed Aurora | 79c | 315$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f6…7b81backed Aurora | 79c | 304$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…5b0fbacked Aurora | 79c | 281$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 252.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aurora | 79c | 235.44$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…eac8backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cb…1e00backed Aurora | 79c | 225$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Aurora | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 16c | 190.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…38e7backed Aurora | 79c | 174.82$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Aurora | 80c | 168.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37f9…ff9bbacked Aurora | 79c | 168$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed paiN Gaming | 11c | 163.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x37b6…2262backed Aurora | 80c | 146.25$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 141$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…6ce1backed paiN Gaming | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Aurora | 80c | 125.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Aurora | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df4…53f1backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…4605backed Aurora | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…378ebacked Aurora | 78c | 110$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 105.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked paiN Gaming | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked paiN Gaming | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…7d27backed Aurora | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Aurora | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e30…f399backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc937…273bbacked paiN Gaming | 24c | 83.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 36.7%33 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 83.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…baf1backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Aurora | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…6747backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 67.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -9.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1d…8986backed Aurora | 78c | 65.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ae…f001backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 63.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…0c81backed Aurora | 80c | 61.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46a…ac91backed Aurora | 80c | 57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…0c59backed Aurora | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Aurora | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a2…3715backed paiN Gaming | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…d8d8backed Aurora | 74c | 40.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c4…a92dbacked paiN Gaming | 29c | 36.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…5ae8backed Aurora | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Aurora | 80c | 30.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…a19fbacked Aurora | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Aurora | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 75cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…3085backed Aurora | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…e0b5backed Aurora | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed Aurora | 80c | 16.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…9a52backed Aurora | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Aurora | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…791dbacked Aurora | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…4244backed Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf657…f8d0backed Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…10c0backed Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.