Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9474a2ecd6f25ced053827ca1536652d10d65ba2dbe49b1a616a07dce524e072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, paiN Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,782 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 63c | 17,442$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,441.77 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e35…0eb0backed paiN Gaming | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 76c | 9,787$7,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.9 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked paiN Gaming | 14c | 8,368$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.2 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked paiN Gaming | 37c | 7,457$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.47 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed paiN Gaming | 25c | 5,976$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.25 | 130 | 45.4%59 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked paiN Gaming | 31c | 4,782$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.38 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Aurora | 77c | 4,699$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed paiN Gaming | 36c | 4,444$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Aurora | 79c | 3,795$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.55 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed paiN Gaming | 32c | 3,656$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.59 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…0958backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed paiN Gaming | 39c | 2,976$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.36 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…ce53backed Aurora | 80c | 2,713$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.52 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 2,563$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.61 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 80c | 2,556$2,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.05 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked paiN Gaming | 32c | 2,299$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.02 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed paiN Gaming | 29c | 2,138$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.82 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 2,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed paiN Gaming | 20c | 1,933$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.35 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6153…75b6backed paiN Gaming | 35c | 1,910$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Aurora | 69c | 1,882$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.9 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked paiN Gaming | 30c | 1,661$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.02 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora | 70c | 1,400$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed paiN Gaming | 18c | 1,395$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.95 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed paiN Gaming | 45c | 1,123$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 1,043$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.64 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked paiN Gaming | 13c | 1,031$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked paiN Gaming | 18c | 1,003$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed paiN Gaming | 34c | 964.98$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.09 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 69c | 935.68$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.53 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…2c75backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 924.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked paiN Gaming | 20c | 920$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked paiN Gaming | 11c | 873.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 851.85$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed paiN Gaming | 36c | 719.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Aurora | 77c | 710.01$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed paiN Gaming | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed paiN Gaming | 36c | 686$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.96 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…b9f9backed paiN Gaming | 39c | 670$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.3 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed paiN Gaming | 15c | 561.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Aurora | 54c | 510.08$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.5 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked paiN Gaming | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 33.9%58 W · 113 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked paiN Gaming | 19c | 496$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.7 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…5bc1backed paiN Gaming | 10c | 460$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Aurora | 71c | 457.05$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…020dbacked paiN Gaming | 23c | 435.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed paiN Gaming | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed paiN Gaming | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 389.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.1 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed paiN Gaming | 13c | 375.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Aurora | 76c | 362.8$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.07 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed paiN Gaming | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Aurora | 63c | 342.7$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…434abacked paiN Gaming | 14c | 337.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.72 | 496 | 44.6%221 W · 275 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 325.28$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 311.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Aurora | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked paiN Gaming | 11c | 282.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Aurora | 77c | 270$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 281 | 45.6%128 W · 153 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed paiN Gaming | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Aurora | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 78c | 237.19$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Aurora | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked paiN Gaming | 16c | 213.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Aurora | 75c | 211.37$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked paiN Gaming | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Aurora | 80c | 195$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 176$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed paiN Gaming | 40c | 175.58$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e54…92e0backed Aurora | 76c | 170$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed paiN Gaming | 28c | 154.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked paiN Gaming | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…bb30backed paiN Gaming | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Aurora | 64c | 146$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f05…a9b9backed paiN Gaming | 35c | 140.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 54c | 139.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed paiN Gaming | 17c | 138.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…eea9backed Aurora | 68c | 132.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe289…c31abacked Aurora | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1391…6b3fbacked paiN Gaming | 10c | 122$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed paiN Gaming | 22c | 118.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked paiN Gaming | 19c | 118.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…f319backed paiN Gaming | 38c | 118.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Aurora | 64c | 116$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked paiN Gaming | 18c | 111.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed paiN Gaming | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed paiN Gaming | 43c | 107$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa5…ff32backed paiN Gaming | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 185 | 44.9%83 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked paiN Gaming | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Aurora | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Aurora | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked paiN Gaming | 17c | 97.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…ad9cbacked Aurora | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed paiN Gaming | 33c | 91.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.