Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc366979a281568ab413be490e5679a40c757482d6516ef22878a9c3ad0e67445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd119…28abbacked Over | 67c | 7,062$4,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 4,217$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.43 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 3,306$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.73 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 64c | 390$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 63c | 272.5$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 31c | 272.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 35c | 271.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 37c | 263.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 69c | 213.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 32c | 177.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 65c | 150.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 37c | 115.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 32c | 108.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 98.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 223 | 40.8%91 W · 132 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 37c | 93.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…7685backed Under | 34c | 70.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 33c | 63.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 34c | 61.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 65c | 57.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 67c | 42.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed Under | 36c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 65c | 23.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.