Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc39354fbbd5cc5ee7e1ecfaa3948c6dd414376655b1461d1ea89c2470a7debea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 60c | 458.33$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 458.33$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Team Liquid | 41c | 458.11$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.62 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ | 50c | 370$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed MOUZ | 17c | 359.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…1d29backed MOUZ | 55c | 327.11$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94ef…2855backed Team Liquid | 45c | 327.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ | 63c | 324.17$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.23 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 202.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Team Liquid | 71c | 162.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Team Liquid | 47c | 126.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 53c | 114.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed MOUZ | 20c | 92.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed MOUZ | 18c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…9194backed MOUZ | 62c | 64.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked MOUZ | 33c | 60.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Team Liquid | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…e862backed Team Liquid | 55c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked MOUZ | 46c | 26.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsMOUZ won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.