Fifa International · resolved market
Will Botswana win on 2025-12-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3a3e944aeba02eaf423e050615b805e95eb4c13fca8364a923b0bfe051c1ced
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39c6…daeebacked Yes | 18c | 37,222$6,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,664.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 17c | 4,001$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.21 | 214 | 44.9%96 W · 118 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 3,781$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.75 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…f1abbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 15c | 1,913$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Yes | 16c | 1,441$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 15c | 1,148$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 17c | 1,092$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.74 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 818.1$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…b594backed Yes | 1c | 801.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…32c9backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…040abacked Yes | 8c | 377.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…324dbacked Yes | 14c | 228.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Yes | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c42…6e3bbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 16c | 124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…bb13backed Yes | 17c | 111.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 14c | 107.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 16c | 87.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,388 | 15.1%210 W · 1,178 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…93f8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b7…c701backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed No | 78c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botswana win on 2025-12-27?this page
- Will Benin vs. Botswana end in a draw?No won
- Will Benin win on 2025-12-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.