Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3d54894ba2fb5604d401917fd02efd8f747a10e1b72179366c06124a57dc8ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 8c | 441.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 8c | 379.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 6c | 272$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 17c | 252.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 230.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 16c | 180$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 9c | 166.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 160.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 152.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 133.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 8c | 128.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 78c | 119.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 22c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 104.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…3939backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 10c | 98.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 11c | 97.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 94.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 16c | 91.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 76c | 90.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 82.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 29c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 18c | 76.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7240…9906backed Yes | 24c | 72.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 18c | 69.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 55.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…7672backed Yes | 27c | 41.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 26c | 41.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 33c | 33.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.