Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0a7faf77883e61cd557e2679d281ee96f91064181d4aee3735ae409b2314828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 0c | 24,380$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 15c | 520.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 27c | 379.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 20c | 357.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 40c | 299.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 78c | 257.5$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 44c | 195.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 55c | 184.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 57c | 175.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 173.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…8487backed No | 61c | 162.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 157.6$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 145.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 39c | 129.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 55c | 120.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 120.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 44c | 112.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 111.91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 99.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 57c | 98.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 97.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 80c | 85.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 36c | 73.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 22c | 68.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 66.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 54c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 37c | 58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 56.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 49.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd19…3f54backed Yes | 44c | 48.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 65c | 45.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 42.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 41.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 42c | 39.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…6e3cbacked No | 56c | 34.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed No | 77c | 32.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 30.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 28.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 42c | 28.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 42c | 28.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 28.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 38c | 28.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 26.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 26.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 59c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 24.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 47c | 23.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 72c | 23.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 60c | 21.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.