Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb0596a4bf532c33c69ed9e2647399fdc970fcdb67a1da464445a4e933653a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 66c | 757.6$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 74c | 590.39$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.61 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 56c | 567.57$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes | 37c | 535.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.03 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 10c | 447.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 415$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 379.64$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.34 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 373.61$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.54 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 68c | 367.89$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 35c | 353.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 39c | 343.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.83 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 58c | 324.1$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 41c | 315.34$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.34 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked No | 68c | 293.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 288.34$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 32c | 281$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 46c | 277.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.92 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 246.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 220.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 219$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 218.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 80c | 216.78$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 56c | 209.78$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.83 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 202.21$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…da9abacked Yes | 30c | 192.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 58c | 167.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 42c | 161.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 160.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 62c | 156.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 13c | 149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 19c | 145.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 72c | 144.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3c43backed Yes | 34c | 139.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 67c | 139.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 135.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 73c | 121$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 68c | 120$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 30c | 105.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8808…d288backed Yes | 32c | 105.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 48c | 103$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 100.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 99.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 57c | 98.93$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 98.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 11c | 96.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 36c | 89.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 89.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 23c | 87.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 40c | 87.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 46c | 83.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 25c | 80.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 61c | 79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 38c | 78.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 38c | 78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 49c | 73.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 72c | 73.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 59c | 70.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 28c | 69.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 30c | 68.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 72c | 67.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 63.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 56.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 32c | 50.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 50c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 42c | 45.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…3082backed Yes | 47c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 49c | 39.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 37.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 42c | 36.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 36.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 41c | 35.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 35.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 35.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 34.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 68c | 34.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 32.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec93…dd46backed Yes | 67c | 31.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 30.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd1…a583backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 38c | 29.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.