NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3e8f70e1f1ac241a9183ff856223577a4e98ace233adac89fc1756b75fd8e0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Canadiens, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Canadiens | 36c | 1,400$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 64c | 896.28$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.66 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Red Wings | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Red Wings | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…d974backed Canadiens | 36c | 383.33$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Canadiens | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Red Wings | 67c | 106.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.29 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 66c | 106.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Canadiens | 33c | 105.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Red Wings | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Canadiens | 34c | 46.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Red Wings | 65c | 46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Canadiens | 34c | 43.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Red Wings | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 67c | 31.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. CanadiensRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.