Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f195a0cc50008525f83a2c3d77134adcad0b4d871bfe402d93f65e59d358c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RE.Ariseof RE.Arise, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.99 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed RE.Arise | 53c | 5,137$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,429.06 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 1,818$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.17 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 1,198$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.71 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…03a6backed RE.Arise | 46c | 1,175$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.17 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed RE.Arise | 46c | 1,149$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.44 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 998.38$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.64 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked RE.Arise | 47c | 977.53$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.08 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81c3…d67dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 597.6$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.91 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…6ba4backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 579.91$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.35 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 525.87$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.84 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed RE.Arise | 47c | 434.04$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed RE.Arise | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked RE.Arise | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f41…547cbacked RE.Arise | 21c | 372.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.95 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked RE.Arise | 61c | 306.77$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d5…54d5backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 270$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.1 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise | 50c | 269.93$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffa…7710backed RE.Arise | 42c | 266.66$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.66 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed RE.Arise | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7126…bfcbbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 195.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 69c | 177.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked RE.Arise | 47c | 170.51$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51cf…45fbbacked RE.Arise | 53c | 152$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed RE.Arise | 52c | 124.29$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 118.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…dcd0backed RE.Arise | 23c | 96.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Nemiga Gaming | 56c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked RE.Arise | 68c | 88.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked RE.Arise | 58c | 86.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 85.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed RE.Arise | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050e…d92fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked RE.Arise | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked RE.Arise | 48c | 52.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 51.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 49.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 46.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…6a2bbacked RE.Arise | 79c | 38.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 176 | 60.2%106 W · 70 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed RE.Arise | 78c | 32.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked RE.Arise | 47c | 32.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed RE.Arise | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked RE.Arise | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…afc3backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nemiga Gaming | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 28.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed RE.Arise | 53c | 27.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed RE.Arise | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d9…4d80backed Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 25.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked RE.Arise | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…d660backed RE.Arise | 51c | 23.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Nemiga Gaming | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked RE.Arise | 51c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNemiga Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.