Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0a9347df5092846aae4eb3acca054c3244f7e647b896c12fb365fc43ebfbe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof RE.Arise, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.69 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed RE.Arise | 43c | 2,257$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.68 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 695.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.21 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed RE.Arise | 73c | 479.17$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Nemiga Gaming | 42c | 401.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.79 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…03a6backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 287.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.62 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 220$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 209.75$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 207.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b39…1f68backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +11.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…b19cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…9b19backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 174.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise | 55c | 165.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 152.61$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 691 | 32.6%225 W · 466 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed RE.Arise | 59c | 119.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked RE.Arise | 35c | 102.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 91.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…87f4backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +13.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 80.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 73.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Nemiga Gaming | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…a3dfbacked RE.Arise | 35c | 56.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 53.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked RE.Arise | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Nemiga Gaming | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed RE.Arise | 63c | 48.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 47.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 59c | 46.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise | 33c | 41.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked RE.Arise | 26c | 41.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked RE.Arise | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 35.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Nemiga Gaming | 43c | 34.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked RE.Arise | 46c | 33.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…8e54backed RE.Arise | 72c | 27.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 77.8%49 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf461…9ef2backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 26.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed RE.Arise | 60c | 25.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Nemiga Gaming | 41c | 25.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Nemiga Gaming | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked RE.Arise | 74c | 20.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Nemiga Gaming | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Nemiga Gaming | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsRE.Arise won
- Dota 2: RE.Arise vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerRE.Arise won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.