Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-08-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f33627e9ebc365383ade5edfa5d829341a01825ea2f7c88b2a80e7702c54c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,943$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.94 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Yes | 19c | 4,971$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.43 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 18c | 4,190$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.48 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Yes | 3c | 3,738$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 15c | 3,390$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.79 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,051$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 1,319$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Yes | 22c | 642.65$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 18c | 592.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 19c | 527.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 17c | 386$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 14c | 339.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 19c | 290$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 270 | 39.3%106 W · 164 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…602fbacked Yes | 12c | 216.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…5076backed Yes | 19c | 202.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 78c | 155.47$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 370 | 46.5%172 W · 198 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 20c | 143$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 80c | 134.21$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 16c | 122.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 100.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 17c | 91.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 80c | 84.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 80 | 70%56 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 17c | 83.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Yes | 18c | 80.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 19c | 78.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 14c | 71.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 69.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Yes | 17c | 63.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 17c | 62.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 80c | 27.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-08-11?this page
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. Panathinaikós AO end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-08-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.