Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. Panathinaikós AO end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b7edc5e9aa3df37007ae4871707a0758b84032c39d791b0645d225c18a5af92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 67c | 3,458$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.65 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,363$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.1 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780 | 112 | 26.8%30 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 61c | 813.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.27 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked No | 74c | 708.69$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.29 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…7974backed No | 16c | 644.19$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 23c | 589.62$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 58c | 570.99$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.12 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 26c | 444.07$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.61 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 26c | 218.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 920 | 50.9%468 W · 452 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 54c | 215.26$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 72c | 177.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 30c | 165$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 20c | 154$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 143.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 65c | 141.65$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 158 | 28.5%45 W · 113 L | -18.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…d0b2backed Yes | 27c | 134.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.27 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 73c | 129.77$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 40c | 116.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 275 | 37.1%102 W · 173 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Yes | 50c | 97.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 41c | 88.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf952…602fbacked No | 16c | 79.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 74c | 66.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 27c | 60.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 26c | 59.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 443 | 56.2%249 W · 194 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…6562backed Yes | 26c | 57.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.41 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 32c | 50.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed No | 65c | 49.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 24c | 42.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 50c | 42.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Yes | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 34c | 29.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 80c | 28.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 79c | 23.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 64c | 23.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed No | 80c | 21.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 62c | 19.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. Panathinaikós AO end in a draw?this page
- Will FK CSKA 1948 Sofia win on 2026-08-11?No won
- Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-08-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.