Tennis · resolved market
ITF Wels: Marlon Vankan vs Erik Schiessl
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f6249222a07f074264896ff746e5ed4ad1d259bc37426bf32d703949c4267e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Erik Schiesslof Marlon Vankan, Erik Schiessl
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marlon Vankan | 53c | 2,253$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.06 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Erik Schiessl | 47c | 1,322$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.25 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Erik Schiessl | 63c | 918.41$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.25 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Marlon Vankan | 53c | 750$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Marlon Vankan | 58c | 561.54$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.92 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Erik Schiessl | 42c | 527.1$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.72 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Marlon Vankan | 53c | 446.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.9 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Erik Schiessl | 47c | 259.44$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.54 | 414 | 40.3%167 W · 247 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Erik Schiessl | 47c | 113.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Marlon Vankan | 52c | 96.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Marlon Vankan | 54c | 90.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…b3eabacked Erik Schiessl | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marlon Vankan | 55c | 57.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e84…1c33backed Erik Schiessl | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…fe16backed Erik Schiessl | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +69%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Marlon Vankan | 54c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Erik Schiessl | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 423 | 59.1%250 W · 173 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Erik Schiessl | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…8615backed Erik Schiessl | 49c | 35.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 311 | 64.3%200 W · 111 L | +36.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Erik Schiessl | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4936…38a6backed Erik Schiessl | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Erik Schiessl | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marlon Vankan | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Erik Schiessl | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Erik Schiessl | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.