Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3fce8de213227aeb92db6464a169a9421132443febc5d844c6c6b08514d713f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 454.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 23c | 264.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 219.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 212.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 171.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 9c | 123$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 28c | 109.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 82.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 81.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 22c | 68.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 45c | 67.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 72c | 64.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd02…e9afbacked Yes | 71c | 57.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 24c | 43.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…489dbacked No | 78c | 30.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…5fc9backed Yes | 53c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 75c | 25.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 52c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 152 | 75.7%115 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 79c | 17.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 65c | 15.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x69a7…7fd5backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.