Australian A League · resolved market
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc43c362c94e514a137fc11bb125f5a0fa0ea3188ae867d2eecb73db57ba1e2d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 4,386$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.65 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 73c | 3,237$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 28c | 799.83$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 76c | 655.88$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Under | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 74c | 593.81$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.92 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 10c | 527.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 44c | 514.19$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.35 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Under | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 75c | 480$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 68c | 410.21$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.21 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acb…8c1dbacked Under | 62c | 285$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 179.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 77c | 139.23$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 47c | 138.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54f…f282backed Under | 73c | 124.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Over | 24c | 77.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Over | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Over | 24c | 57.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Under | 72c | 51.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…d1dabacked Under | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…306fbacked Under | 59c | 48.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec5…14debacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Under | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +63%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 30c | 41.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…4537backed Over | 54c | 41.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 50c | 21.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 72c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-1.5)Central Coast Mariners FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.