Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc45f182beed12d993476fb76c36cc3a4dc2fdf05bdbaceae9302438c00584810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 1,713$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.52 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 50c | 1,135$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.66 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 36c | 975.94$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 779.88$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Over | 34c | 360$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Over | 35c | 359.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…4897backed Under | 65c | 185.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed Under | 65c | 173.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 123.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed5…472bbacked Under | 77c | 115.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed Under | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 35.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 32.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Over | 36c | 32.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Under | 54c | 22.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. 1. FC Nürnberg: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)1. FC Nürnberg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.