Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2025-12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46476766e896b2d9792dc33dad8b8b960a7071d1971b4732d13592732864a2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,060$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 11c | 4,071$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.6 | 199 | 34.7%69 W · 130 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5027…1a6fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…af75backed Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…8c47backed Yes | 4c | 899.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 11c | 771.64$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 9c | 600.27$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 11c | 540$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6d…4e19backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 5c | 225.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…2236backed Yes | 10c | 195$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 10c | 142$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2025-12-18?this page
- Will Legia Warszawa vs. Lincoln Red Imps FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.