Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f79d134ea0fd012d6c71b4774ad670e7be4dd5f1c7f1554b72ba6d0aa60be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 26c | 30,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed Yes | 74c | 29,347$21,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,630.26 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 76c | 7,088$5,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.18 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 79c | 5,109$4,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.81 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0801…35cbbacked No | 28c | 3,944$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed No | 27c | 3,000$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 72c | 2,792$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.25 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 74c | 1,849$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.85 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 12c | 1,709$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,376$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.98 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked No | 27c | 1,200$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 7c | 624.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 7c | 610$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 70c | 576.99$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 27c | 500.82$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 26c | 435.34$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 74c | 405.08$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 428 | 44.9%192 W · 236 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 15c | 288$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked No | 25c | 259.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed No | 28c | 152$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 78c | 151.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 75c | 149.83$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 8c | 139$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 74c | 125.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed No | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 78c | 108.72$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed No | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked No | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Yes | 72c | 79.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 25c | 79.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…f8a6backed No | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Yes | 72c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 73c | 62.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6794…c10dbacked Yes | 74c | 60.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Yes | 75c | 59.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…04b2backed No | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…812fbacked No | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9609…2236backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked Yes | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc088…0809backed Yes | 73c | 30.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 76c | 30.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6162…e856backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed Yes | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Yes | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.34per pick | 65cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 109 | 63.3%69 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Yes | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked Yes | 71c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Yes | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Yes | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Yes | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 75c | 14.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…8dc7backed Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 75c | 13.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Legia Warszawa win on 2025-12-18?this page
- Will Legia Warszawa vs. Lincoln Red Imps FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Lincoln Red Imps FC win on 2025-12-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.