MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4715125e42f84661b78d76244bdc9aac2ba6098943b68834c3c1c27e9de322a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Under | 55c | 9,105$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,104.62 | 86 | 66.3%57 W · 29 L | +9.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 45c | 4,301$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.34 | 801 | 47.7%382 W · 419 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 4,182$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.31 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 46c | 1,556$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.76 | 1,359 | 50.8%690 W · 669 L | +12.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 54c | 909.39$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.32 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…11b4backed Under | 54c | 212.72$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…0111backed Over | 48c | 148.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193b…f6ecbacked Under | 55c | 80.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 51.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 50.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…7137backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94eb…fcdfbacked Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked Under | 55c | 41.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9,862 | 46.4%4,579 W · 5,283 L | +40.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.