MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd641fe5e7d4b87f30c33852072a4c672e30a202846126a3317cba0489b94e7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 2,583$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 2,568$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 57c | 2,143$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.44 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 43c | 1,250$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 49c | 1,079$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.21 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 1,063$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 58c | 1,053$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.72 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 58c | 1,053$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.72 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 39c | 988.57$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.59 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 43c | 936.19$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.67 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 43c | 900$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 56c | 895.58$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.74 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 43c | 750$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.5 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 500$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 43c | 457.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.03 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 440$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 54c | 347.85$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 331.66$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 44c | 327.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.23 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 316.62$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.16 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 45c | 244.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.45 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6974…11b4backed Under | 50c | 187.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 187.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 55c | 184.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 55c | 145.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 42c | 131.89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Over | 57c | 122.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 42c | 113$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 43c | 102.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 52c | 99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 95.23$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 55c | 72.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Over | 55c | 72.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f45…e6a7backed Over | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 41c | 51.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 47c | 49.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 42.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 55c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 59c | 41.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55a3…fd93backed Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 35c | 38.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 54c | 35.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…9da8backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 52c | 33.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.