Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4866eba9f099092dcae7ebf7c2c509c3629aa2b8fdda4464cc568d4237012e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 18c | 807$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.57 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 18c | 704.02$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.13 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 10c | 693.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 10c | 297.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 241.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 13c | 197$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 156.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 156.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 7c | 143.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 9c | 125.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 17c | 117.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd66d…0884backed Yes | 12c | 113.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 17c | 104.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 12c | 92.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 90.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 16c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 57.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 22c | 51.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 78c | 46.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 27.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 78c | 18.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.