Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d2b866843974b3d9237122b0fb5fb6c15d27d890e9df6d1ff1ff1534713191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 337.62$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 334.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 35c | 285.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 33c | 253.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.95 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 174.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.88 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 165.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 138.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6e53…eb15backed No | 79c | 126.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 29c | 108.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 40c | 105.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 105.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 27c | 97.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 66c | 95.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked No | 75c | 83.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 27c | 81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 79.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…0b0cbacked Yes | 32c | 72.77$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 71.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.23 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 68.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 62.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 25c | 61.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 54c | 58.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 57.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 65c | 56.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 48.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 30c | 48.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 46.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…691abacked No | 79c | 46.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 67c | 44.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 39.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 71c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 46c | 35.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 40c | 33.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 33c | 31.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 29.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e04…67f4backed No | 73c | 28.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 26.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 23.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 22.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 21.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 18.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 74c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…ebe8backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6373…a100backed No | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…be9ebacked No | 76c | 14.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…6b6ebacked No | 76c | 13.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…b6afbacked No | 80c | 12.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.