MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc48db05bd10b4cae2e0104d455179af36d54759bb039f7a16d23fc2915c9c5c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 46c | 2,809$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.29 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,536$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.72 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 80c | 2,510$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 1,131$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 854.22$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.74 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 46c | 655.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.17 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 46c | 654.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.17 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Under | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 467.31$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 28c | 448.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 19c | 335.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 75c | 191.66$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 179.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 57c | 176.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 163$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 30c | 121.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 108.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 45c | 108.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 37c | 101.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 55c | 75.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Under | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 45c | 72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 55c | 54.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 45c | 51.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 55c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 76c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Over | 45c | 29.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 56c | 21.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.