Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a054f3dc409f85080e3540279bf0fb5dd7072ba93637aba31e562662504be0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 734.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 11c | 702.23$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.83 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 34c | 604.52$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.78 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 542.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 394.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 372.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…6e0abacked Yes | 12c | 309.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 21c | 221.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 26c | 165.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 17c | 134.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 9c | 128.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 23c | 109.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x121f…4765backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5581…8495backed No | 69c | 99.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…5e7dbacked Yes | 16c | 91.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 21c | 86.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 68.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 36c | 53.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed Yes | 27c | 51.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 24c | 42.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed No | 76c | 38.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed No | 67c | 32.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 39c | 32.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 23.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 58c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 17.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 74c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.