Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd88f23c37caf418b00ff3b3bda4531df373f83588dd9dff24e4bfc01df8f1ecc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6892…fcd6backed No | 1c | 1,207$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 734.03$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 11c | 635.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2863…d8a6backed No | 3c | 602.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 36c | 453.37$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.03 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 3c | 428.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 54c | 374.65$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 259.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 257.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 68c | 223.66$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 28c | 157.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 70c | 151.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2e…7c75backed No | 26c | 137.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 69c | 131.57$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 30c | 122.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d4…e3e5backed No | 64c | 120.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 63c | 109.19$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 57c | 103.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 72c | 97.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 96.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 26c | 94.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…5c4fbacked No | 27c | 92.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 86.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 42c | 77.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…65fbbacked Yes | 31c | 75.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 72.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed Yes | 68c | 71.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…6e0abacked Yes | 50c | 71.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 20c | 69.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1565…3a47backed Yes | 53c | 56.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cc…da77backed Yes | 42c | 47.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…85cbbacked Yes | 32c | 37.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 71c | 37.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…9f2ebacked Yes | 80c | 36.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…a06ebacked Yes | 41c | 36.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…0529backed No | 33c | 33.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 28.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 45c | 25.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 47c | 25.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 54c | 24.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 69c | 24.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 22.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 20.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.