Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a5630a0786c6adaf33afb44b13658f5914f9cff202863f2568e3a3cfa5fb97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- OGof OG, GLYPH
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05a7…42e6backed OG | 69c | 9,182$6,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,840.25 | 410 | 56.8%233 W · 177 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked GLYPH | 31c | 8,725$2,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,716.74 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked OG | 66c | 2,648$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.56 | 287 | 48.8%140 W · 147 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed GLYPH | 33c | 969.99$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked GLYPH | 33c | 904.29$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.68 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…6730backed OG | 69c | 570.8$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked GLYPH | 34c | 564.94$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.08 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed GLYPH | 29c | 310.42$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…2a0dbacked GLYPH | 16c | 302.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GLYPH | 27c | 294.32$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed OG | 65c | 293.69$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed OG | 70c | 280.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed GLYPH | 31c | 231.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed GLYPH | 32c | 217.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed GLYPH | 37c | 182.04$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked GLYPH | 20c | 149.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked OG | 69c | 132.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked GLYPH | 36c | 124.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked OG | 64c | 116.87$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked GLYPH | 31c | 114.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed GLYPH | 11c | 94.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed OG | 78c | 71.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed GLYPH | 31c | 62.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed GLYPH | 34c | 48.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked GLYPH | 25c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked GLYPH | 37c | 44.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1a…e414backed OG | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +143%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsOG won
- Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH - Game 2 WinnerOG won
- Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5)OG won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.