Asian League · resolved market
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a7a29fb4fa7b170ef6eaad51ffcadd96e6fb01fd14c0927070d8d0f72fa68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 54c | 1,221$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.74 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 38c | 789.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 62c | 691.16$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.52 | 1,101 | 49.7%547 W · 554 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 34c | 467.74$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.84 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c6…52bcbacked Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 72c | 173.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.61 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…e35ebacked Over | 30c | 167$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 131.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…39e0backed Over | 37c | 122.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +6.0wins | +0.54per pick | 28cpaid | +580.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 109.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 5,910 | 46.2%2,730 W · 3,180 L | +50.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 68c | 58.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 562 | 45.4%255 W · 307 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 36c | 56.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…d0a6backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 35.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 37c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 37c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 1,617 | 36.3%587 W · 1,030 L | -34.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 38c | 31.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Under | 64c | 25.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Under | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…65bbbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-1.5)Gamba Ōsaka won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 1.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 5.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.