South American Leagues · resolved market
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4b76cb8c0afc5e3fa8b63f406c1e4ed86dcf4d32b3f0685f3419f39295aa9a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 14c | 9,812$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,420.27 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 3c | 6,085$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,898.27 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…09fabacked Under | 2c | 5,717$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,626.68 | 106 | 35.8%38 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Under | 1c | 4,500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,439.99 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 3,314$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.37 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…1ef5backed Over | 39c | 1,626$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.11 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 1,509$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.07 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Under | 1c | 1,478$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.06 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…1a0fbacked Over | 37c | 1,348$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.91 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +392.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 57c | 999.99$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.66 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5fcfbacked Over | 38c | 977.27$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.82 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 67c | 957.85$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.69 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 34c | 713.62$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.99 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf97…2cb3backed Under | 31c | 474.85$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 43c | 340.15$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.74 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…7babbacked Over | 29c | 310.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 42c | 284.14$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.05 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…c645backed Under | 26c | 175.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 51c | 27.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: Red Bull Bragantino O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.