South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7dea0c664030a4d511b6cae3b7c4854e8d71139795cffa61070d46b9a9e469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grêmio FBPAof Red Bull Bragantino, Grêmio FBPA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Red Bull Bragantino | 36c | 60,320$21,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,708.23 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 20,894$13,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,508.7 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 12,716$8,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,577.58 | 198 | 41.9%83 W · 115 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grêmio FBPA | 65c | 6,509$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.85 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…11a9backed Grêmio FBPA | 69c | 3,908$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,207.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 2,901$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.26 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 2,500$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 347 | 47.6%165 W · 182 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 2,107$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.55 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 1,843$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.6 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 1,756$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.16 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 1,756$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.16 | 1,655 | 50.6%838 W · 817 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 1,756$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.16 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Red Bull Bragantino | 33c | 1,090$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.55 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Red Bull Bragantino | 33c | 1,015$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.95 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Grêmio FBPA | 67c | 999.99$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 903$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.08 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 512.54$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.78 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Red Bull Bragantino | 30c | 398.58$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.76 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Grêmio FBPA | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 265.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.54 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 722 | 58.6%423 W · 299 L | +28.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 12c | 144.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Grêmio FBPA | 65c | 111$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 416 | 62%258 W · 158 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 195 | 48.7%95 W · 100 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Grêmio FBPA | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 88.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 632 | 61.2%387 W · 245 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 79.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 144 | 63.9%92 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 50.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Grêmio FBPA | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 234 | 53%124 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Red Bull Bragantino | 37c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 39.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c4…85c2backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 38.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 36.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…abe8backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 78cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Grêmio FBPA | 64c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: Grêmio FBPA O/U 0.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 0.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 5.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Grêmio FBPA: Red Bull Bragantino O/U 1.5Under won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.