NBA · resolved market
Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d3f5267d6ac068e1da43bc56dfe649004e56b57b8ef5327d68f4ae85a29732
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 19c | 1,367$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 21c | 925.49$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…8ba5backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 76c | 95.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f96…c529backed Yes | 24c | 71.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 39.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked No | 76c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…5358backed No | 77c | 29.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8c…b77bbacked No | 77c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb45…7170backed No | 77c | 20.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…ce20backed No | 77c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-3?this page
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-0?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-1?Yes won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-2?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-0?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-1?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-2?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.