NBA · resolved market
Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb028e41d01597ab33fb21bb1008045570cb5bcbe768343124da0521636a501e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $206,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1637…9042backed Yes | 22c | 50,028$11,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,021.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3970…dbdebacked No | 78c | 50,028$39,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,021.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…36c8backed No | 49c | 36,987$18,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,123.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…75f7backed Yes | 51c | 36,987$18,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,123.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 14c | 5,705$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.64 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,967$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.61 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 70c | 1,849$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.01 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 70c | 1,304$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.9 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 20c | 1,044$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…ae6ebacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.99 | 136 | 36.8%50 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 73c | 999$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.27 | 232 | 37.1%86 W · 146 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…5823backed Yes | 80c | 473.75$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 470.67$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.28 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 50c | 450$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…204ebacked Yes | 50c | 396.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 80c | 300$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 95 | 63.2%60 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…5da6backed Yes | 52c | 294.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Yes | 20c | 293.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.08 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01a…2d65backed No | 50c | 281.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 52c | 260$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 16c | 224.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…0dcebacked No | 49c | 182.65$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 49c | 165.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…05cabacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 63c | 121$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 48c | 112.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…2a2abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…57d6backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…233abacked No | 49c | 37.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…9eaabacked Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aaf…f974backed No | 50c | 27.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5c…a393backed Yes | 53c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…38e7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-1?this page
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-0?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-2?No won
- Will the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 4-3?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-0?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-1?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-2?No won
- Will the Warriors beat the Timberwolves 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.