Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4d548b1e1e810c3656ca72055a32d37cc8512fbce90d63f19b5a4277d0aea65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,940$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.31 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 1,408$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.53 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 21c | 654$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.34 | 112 | 35.7%40 W · 72 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 79c | 631.91$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 531.24$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.51 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Yes | 21c | 428.57$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 79c | 378.57$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 19c | 363.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 250.15$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 21c | 210$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +88%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 149.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 79c | 144.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 79c | 134.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 79c | 123$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 79c | 122.77$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 21c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 30 | 90%27 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 79cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 44.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 79c | 37.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083e…81a1backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 79c | 35.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 79c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 79c | 23.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 44 | 79.5%35 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-30?this page
- Will Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan end in a draw?No won
- Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.