Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a9772e4f0cd91c9f23df486d773574cf7022ebf319c62970e43d5184ef55ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 0c | 23,673$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Yes | 1c | 10,008$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 78c | 3,347$2,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.25 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 21c | 3,201$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.8 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 14c | 1,032$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.14 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 218.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 16c | 131$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 24c | 107.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 22c | 103.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 22c | 96.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…4ee7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 76c | 76.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 71.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Yes | 23c | 64.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed No | 79c | 63.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…7974backed Yes | 31c | 32.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 69c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f5…8ad6backed No | 78c | 28.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 389 | 52.7%205 W · 184 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ilves Tampere vs. UMF Stjarnan end in a draw?this page
- Will Ilves Tampere win on 2026-07-30?Yes won
- Will UMF Stjarnan win on 2026-07-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.