Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc51d86dd99e6398640abb759d82c5797fdb63ff19b060d017e7403e1c9837d2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 22c | 3,179$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 2,698$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.98 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Yes | 6c | 1,256$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.34 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 79c | 870.68$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.84 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 79c | 656.52$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.87 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…a3ccbacked Yes | 19c | 531.47$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…25f8backed Yes | 9c | 483$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…8b6fbacked Yes | 17c | 363.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 285.06$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 19c | 244.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 80c | 213.58$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…e407backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 21c | 171.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 20c | 125.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 19c | 120.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb36…79b2backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…aa68backed Yes | 19c | 98.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…f80abacked Yes | 21c | 79.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked No | 80c | 76.91$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 246 | 55.7%137 W · 109 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…5b16backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…e338backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 237 | 57%135 W · 102 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bologna win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will Aston Villa vs. Bologna end in a draw?No won
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.